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BradTaylor comments on Aumann voting; or, How to vote when you're ignorant - Less Wrong
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Indeed - I've considered similar problems with Less Wrong comment voting. If I see a comment that's rated as a 20 and I think it's more like a 5, I'm tempted to vote it down. But I resist the urge because I won't look at it again but there might be 20 people later on that decide to vote it down on its merits, in which case I would want to cancel them out by voting up. So it seems best, when voting isn't one-off and closed, to vote one's conscience.
Surely, other things equal, your best estimate for future voting is current voting. It's more likely that another 20 will upvote than another 20 downvote. If you're only concerned with the outcome, your best strategy will be to downvote. Of course, you may feel really bad if you downvoted a comment below what you think it deserves, because you were responsible.