ialdabaoth comments on Aumann voting; or, How to vote when you're ignorant - Less Wrong

11 Post author: PhilGoetz 02 April 2009 06:54PM

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Comment author: ialdabaoth 12 December 2013 06:40:52PM *  0 points [-]

Let's abstract this into a simple game:

Imagine that there are 100 agents each playing this game, and all are presented with the same choice at the next iteration:

  • A) Add 500 snargs to the polunk.
  • B) Add 400 snargs to the polunk.
  • C) Add 25 snargs to the polunk.

The polunk currently has 500 snargs in it. Once the polunk has 2,000 snargs in it, each and every agent playing the game will be cast into the outer darkness, where they will be forced to sort Precious Mao buttons for all eternity while ferocious rabid weasels gnaw at their extremities.

It is now time to choose. You know from polling that approximately 25% of the agents will tend to pick A, and approximately 20% of the agents will tend to pick B. The remainder have an equal chance of picking A, B, or C.

So which do you choose: A, B, or C?

Comment author: Lumifer 12 December 2013 07:16:36PM *  1 point [-]

Let's abstract this into a simple game

The game is considerably more complicated and involves concepts such as legitimacy and perceived support for policies.