I tried to say this before, but apparently it got lost in my bad expression: civil war and other bad outcomes seem vastly more credible if they happen to serve Quirrell's goals. And some of them would.
Harry's mistake doesn't lie in going against Dumbledore, I think. It lies in failing to update the probability of Quirrell indirectly killing someone to manipulate Harry, based on Azkaban.
I tried to say this before, but apparently it got lost in my bad expression: civil war and other bad outcomes seem vastly more credible if they happen to serve Quirrell's goals. And some of them would.
He's Quirrell. Quirrell doesn't even need to snap his fingers to make that sort of thing happen. No doubt from me.
Harry's mistake doesn't lie in going against Dumbledore, I think. It lies in failing to update the probability of Quirrell indirectly killing someone to manipulate Harry, based on Azkaban.
He does seem to trust Quirrell an awful lot.
Update: Discussion has moved on to a new thread.
The hiatus is over with today's publication of chapter 73, and the previous thread is approaching the 500-comment threshold, so let's start a new Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread. This is the place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter fanfic and anything related to it.
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. The fanfiction.net author page is the central location for information about updates and links to HPMOR-related goodies, and AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: