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DaveX comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 8 - Less Wrong
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So, what are the chances that Harry and Hermione start talking about their encounters with creepy stalkers? Harry could even say something smug and about how crazy it would be if he kept that sort of thing to himself. Or do we have to wait and watch it go bad first?
I'd think the chances are fair that Harry passed his Chap 6 obliviation signaling method onto his allies. If she is paranoid enough to key it for disorienting encounters with powerful wizards, the chances are high they might end up talking about encounter N.
What would signal would Harry think best? Something you could detect at the time of signalling, like a broken toothpick in your pocket, or a signal detectable safely in the future, like a penmark on the inside of your pocket? Probably both.
A rememberall.
Surely this would also be a relatively high priority for his research too. In fact Harry explicitly made a note to himself to research mental magic near the top of his todo list. That should have turned up a device or spell that detects obliviations and he should be in the habit of using it on himself regularly. Which reminds me about the research he is supposedly doing. What has he discovered? What useful spells has he learned? He's supposed to be a genius of near-Hermione level academic skill and far more strategic thought. When are we going to start seeing him pull out awesome, practical magical knowledge or skill?
And somewhere, someone begins thinking paranoidly, 'yes, Harry has made very little practical progress, compared to how much time he has put into scheming against bullies, breaking into Azkaban, and fighting Ender's Game - and isn't it interesting that all 3 seem traceable back to one particular person?'
I was about to respond to wedrifid in agreement, suggesting that were actually several loose ends where Harry ought to have interesting research results, which I would very much like to read about. And yet it's already April! So I was feeling a bit disappointed.
But your explanation has cheered me up immensely.
I doubt the Ch. 6 signal was magic, since he'd invented it and the recognition code before knowing about magic, and implemented during his first shopping trip. I don't think you'd need magic to signal obliviation or a full-on groundhog day attack.
Magic-wise, I'd suppose that obliviation would make a rememberall signal permanently, but then it seems like that would be important to for obliviators to counter somehow.
Magic leaves an armory worth of potential Chekov guns laying around. If owling hand grenades isn't enough to win the next war, it should be something interesting.
Oh, I agree. I speak of upgrades to his precaution measures which I would expect him to have by now.
Your point regarding countermeasures is important. Particularly savvy wizards can be expected to think of that. For this reason I would expect harry to maintain his mundane tactics as well. This exploits the known blind spot of nearly all non-Quirrell wizards. Improving his mundane signalling system has also been raised in importance now that Harry is aware of the possibility of Obliviation and has more reason to expect enemies to be motivated to use it.
An example being the money earning scheme. I would probably enjoy reading about other tactics that Harry considers even if they do not end up being Chekov guns!
This was brought up before:
Of course, there still hasn't been any sort of resolution from that, though there are a number of interesting theories...
Unfortunately that strategy only works if you suspect you're about to be obliviated. Which makes it mostly ineffective except against people who play fair and ask before mucking with your memories.
Or people like canon!Lockhart, who bragged but didn't ask, though that might be a petty distinction.
Or like it was first revealed in chapter 6, as stated above, or again in chapter 17, when one is in a situation wherein there's a high likelihood of Obliviation. Honestly, unless someone springs out and sneak-attack Obliviates you, you'd probably have an inkling that someone trying to keep their secrets is either about to kill or Obliviate you, which should be enough time to chew your cheek or lip.
But we know Hermione didn't send herself a signal. Anything simple and quick enough to do unobtrusively (like biting her lip) would have been instantly noticeable to her on the second iteration.
We know Hermione didn't send herself a signal she could notice instantly on a second iteration. As of ch76, we do not know if she sent herself a signal not instantly noticable.
You might not want to use a signal that could be detected by yourself during an obliviation event in order to make sure the signal isn't telegraphed to the obliviator.
Harry might think that if one needed to signal obliviation, it might be best to detect it safely in the future, unless he thought he could make use of an instantly detectable signal and a tactical response would be worth risking interception. In Ch. 6 he risked interception of the signal (he told the potential obliviator McGonnagal about it) in order to forestall obliviation. I doubt that that tactic would work with Mr. Hat and Cloak/Ms. Veil/...