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gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 8 - Less Wrong
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Yes. Also, "she saw the face beneath, and recognition sent a jolt of terrified adrenaline bursting through her" - 'recognition' doesn't read to me like the person she saw was a personal acquaintance of hers.
Grindelwald?
He's been mentioned so many times, and his connection to Dumbledore explored in such detail, that it'd be surprising if he didn't play a role in the story. If you grant that, then his motivation for returning was aggressively foreshadowed by Chapter 42 ("Courage"). He'd be a strong candidate for opposing and manipulating Dumbledore as Hat & Cloak is doing.
But not much in Hat & Cloak's appearances points to Grindelwald specifically. The sibilance of his speech and the ambiguity around his gender might be nods toward stereotypically gay characteristics. And might not be. It'll be clearer once Eliezer's told us more of what Grindelwald was like as a person.
How do either Black, Bellatrix, or Grindelwald pass the observation about the wards screaming on Obliviation by non-professor?
We didn't know about this restriction back then. But yeah, that restriction effectively eliminates the possibility of a non-Professor like Sirius being Hat & Cloak.
Yeah. Which, as the example of Skeeter teaches us, means that we could look for a weaker link in the chain: the professors themselves. Imperius/Obliviation strategies have been discussed in the past, but Polyjuice Potion hasn't. Would that work? Dunno. Moody fooled the wards in canon, but that was probably because the fake was the only one to ever get keyed in as a Professor in the first place. Would Polyjuice let Flitwick or one of the others be replaced?