If I reference beliefs in our society that might cause harmful effects were they not so wise and enlightened, it also makes vivid case. Indeed, any reference to strikingly harmful effects makes a vivid case. [...] But some people did have the foresight that the regime was going to be short lived, at least towards the end. Nazi strategy was explained in Hitler's widely read book. The plan was to destroy France (done), force a quick peace settlement with the anglophones (failed), and then invade and ethnically cleanse a large part of Russia. The plan was for short wars against a small set of enemies at any one time. When the British sank the Bismark, the plan was in trouble, since Anglophone air and sea superiority made it unlikely that Germany could force a quick peace, or force them to do anything they did not feel like doing, nor force them to refrain from doing anything they might feel like doing. When they sank the Bismark in May 1941, it was apparent that anglophones could reach Germany, and Germany could not effectively reach them. At that point all type A's should have suspected that Germany had lost the war. At Stalingrad, the plan sank without a trace, and every type A must have known that the war was lost. In general, a type A will predict the future better than a type B, since false beliefs lead society to unforseen consequences.