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gwern comments on Alzheimer's vs Cryonics - Less Wrong
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I wonder, how much does that single bit of information (doubling the chance) matter to those decisions? Should you have been doing those things anyway, for the Alzheimer's prevention and the other benefits? Is it the motivational factor of the formal personal certification that is important or the actual information?
Well, to point out the obvious, the expected value equation is 'risk times consequence', so if you double the risk and leave the consequence unchanged, by definition you double the result of expected value. (If I have a 50-50 chance of $5 with EV=$2.5, and I double the risk to 100-0, then my expected value also doubles to $5.)
A doubling could make a fair number of sacrifices or strategies now net-positive.
Yes, that was obvious. I'm not sure why you pointed it out as a response to the grandparent.