For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by 'succeed'?

I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won't be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call "the Poseidon award":

* Has at least 50 full-time residents.
* Is financially self-sufficient.
* Offers seastead real estate on the open market.
* Has de-facto political autonomy.

Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.