Perhaps I am, myself, victim to some bias that I have not read about despite months on this site. Does anyone recognize it? Or in general have anything to add to this.

Have you kept a list of things you were wrong on? Or do you simply change your mind that rarely and are that accurate?

I've been on these forums back when it was still the SL4 mailing list, and I think I've internalized a lot of it, and I contribute good content (I'm not in the top karma list, but I've not that far away). And yet, I am still fallible:

1. My predictions routinely fail, sometimes even very high confidence predictions; see:

   • http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern
   • http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets
2. My list of mistakes - just the ones I can remember, just the major ones, just the intellectual ones (major mistakes in my personal life go in a different file) - is already at 5, and may in the coming years nearly double depending on how the wavering ones go: http://www.gwern.net/Mistakes