gwern comments on Rationality Quotes September 2011 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (482)
It's a nice list, but I think the core point strikes me as liable to be simply false. I forget who it was presenting this evidence - it might even have been James Miller, it was someone at the Winter Intelligence conference at FHI - but they looked at (1) the economic gains to countries with higher average IQ, (2) the average gains to individuals with higher IQ, and concluded that (3) people with high IQ create vast amounts of positive externality, much more than they capture as individuals, probably mostly in the form of countries with less stupid economic policies.
Maybe if we're literally talking about a pure speed and LTM pill that doesn't affect at all, say, capacity to keep things in short-term memory or the ability to maintain complex abstractions in working memory, i.e., a literal speed and disk space pill rather than an IQ pill.
Sounds plausible. If anybody finds the citation for this, please post it.
How about http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/news/releases/are-the-wealthiest-countries-the-smartest-countries.html ?
Citing "Cognitive Capitalism: The impact of ability, mediated through science and economic freedom, on wealth". (PDF not immediately available in Google.)
EDIT: efm found the PDF: http://www.tu-chemnitz.de/hsw/psychologie/professuren/entwpsy/team/rindermann/publikationen/11PsychScience.pdf
Or http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/converging.pdf :
EDITEDIT: high IQ predicts superior stock market investing even after the obvious controls. High IQ types are also more likely to trust the stock market enough to participate more in it
"Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress", Zagorsky 2007:
One could also phrase this as: "if we control for factors which we know to because by intelligence, such as highest level of education, then mirabile dictu! intelligence no longer increases income or wealth very much!"; or, "regressions are hard, let's go shopping."
Apropos of http://lemire.me/blog/archives/2012/07/18/why-we-make-up-jobs-out-of-thin-air/
Intelligence: A Unifying Construct for the Social Sciences, Lynn & Vanhanen 2012 (excerpts)
"IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naïve Calibration", Jones 2006:
That quote does not appear to come from the linked paper, and I'm confused as to how a paper from 2006 was supposed to have a citation from 2009.
Only the first paragraph is wrong (mixed it up with a paper on the Swiss iodization experience I'm using in a big writeup on iodide self-experimentation). Fixed.
"Economic gains resulting from the reduction in children's exposure to lead in the United States", Grosse et al 2002 (fulltext)
Their summary estimate from pg5/567 is a lower-middle-upperbound of each IQ point is worth, in net present value 2000 dollars: 12,700-14,500-17,200.
(Note that these figures, as usual, are net estimates of the value to an individual: so they are including zero-sum games and positional benefits. They aren't giving estimates of the positive externalities or marginal benefits.)
"Quality of Institutions : Does Intelligence Matter?", Kalonda-Kanyama & Kodila-Tedika 2012:
"IQ and Permanent Income: Sizing Up the “IQ Paradox”":
"Costs and benefits of iodine supplementation for pregnant women in a mildly to moderately iodine-deficient population: a modelling analysis" (mirror; appendices), Monahan et al 2015
IQ estimates:
All the details are in the Monahan et al 2015 appendices
The 8 studies are listed on pg8 of the appendix, Table 1:
(Note that by including covariates that are obviously caused by IQ rather than independent, and excluding any attempt at measuring the many positive externalities of greater intelligence, these numbers can usually be considered substantial underestimates of country-wide benefits.)
"Are Smarter Groups More Cooperative? Evidence from Prisoner's Dilemma Experiments, 1959-2003", Jones 2008:
Later: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/group_iq_one_so.html
What if higher SAT schools tend to be more prestigious and have stronger student identification?
Dunno. It's consistent with all the other results about IQ and not school spirit...
Hm. Looks like going to a public/private school didn't seem to mediate student cooperation all that much, which probably works against my theory.
They're all US studies. Do we have anything from other cultures?
"IQ in the Production Function: Evidence from Immigrant Earnings", Jones & Schneider 2008:
"The High Cost of Low Educational Performance: the long-run economic impact of improving PISA outcomes", Hanushek & Woessmann 2010:
Needless to say, "cognitive skills" here is essentially an euphemism for intelligence/IQ.
But but Goodhart's law!
And it's also confusing correlation with causation; grading is in large part due to intelligence. Boosting scores may be useless.
"Education, Intelligence, and Attitude Extremity", Makowsky & Miller 2012
"The relationship between happiness and intelligent quotient: the contribution of socio-economic and clinical factors", Ali et al 2012; effect is weakened once you take into account all the relevant variables but does sort of still exist.