roland comments on Rationality Quotes September 2011 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: dvasya 02 September 2011 07:38AM

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Comment author: roland 12 September 2011 09:45:58PM 0 points [-]

Sorry, but I don't understand you.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 12 September 2011 10:54:24PM 4 points [-]

Using the outside view tells you something about your particular case. If you don't know how long your project is going to take, and then someone tells you that such projects normally take ten months, then you've learned something about how long your project will take. It will take about ten months. Your quote is the kind of thing that people say because they think their project is special in some way. They're trying to fight the outside view. But most of the time their project isn't special, it will take just as long as everyone else.

The outside view informs judgements of particular cases.

Comment author: roland 23 September 2011 09:19:52PM *  2 points [-]

Alright, I will add a bit more context:

Academics are familiar with a related example: finishing our papers almost always takes us longer than we expected. We all know this and often say so. Why then do we continue to make the same error? Here again, the outside view does not inform judgments of particular cases.

From Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 23 September 2011 10:10:03PM 2 points [-]

Ah, that makes much more sense. Thanks.