roland comments on Rationality Quotes September 2011 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: dvasya 02 September 2011 07:38AM

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Comment author: roland 23 September 2011 09:19:52PM *  2 points [-]

Alright, I will add a bit more context:

Academics are familiar with a related example: finishing our papers almost always takes us longer than we expected. We all know this and often say so. Why then do we continue to make the same error? Here again, the outside view does not inform judgments of particular cases.

From Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 23 September 2011 10:10:03PM 2 points [-]

Ah, that makes much more sense. Thanks.