komponisto comments on The Cognitive Science of Rationality - Less Wrong
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Common usage puts the other one first: "The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one"
This is an unfortunate shortening of "a million to one against", which would be correct.
I thought that "a million to one" always meant "a million to one against", and you had to specify "a million to one on" when necessary.
My survey of one agrees with you - I would definitely have thought of this the other way around though.