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mwengler comments on The Cognitive Science of Rationality - Less Wrong
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Should be "one to a million".
Biased response: as a native American English speaker I can assure you that "a million to one" is idiomatically correct.
I suspect that the more complete non-idiomatic version would be "a million to one against" and that the "against" is implicit because the idiom is highly established as expressing a very low probability.