As it happens, none of those upvotes was from me. But, also as it happens, your explicit answer does indeed raise my probability estimate for #1 and (indirectly) for #2, and the fact that no one else has chimed in to point out a Scientology-DI connection raises my probability estimate for #2 and (indirectly) for #1; my estimate for #1-and-#2 is now more like 99% or so. Not that I really trust estimates like these very much unless they're backed up by credible calculation, which this one isn't.
So, if I were to make you a bet that #1-and-#2 is true that you should rationally take if you believe that 99% estimate, it must be set up so that gjmgain*0.01>owengain*0.99...
So unless I'm making some embarrassing simple math mistake here, if I put up say $2000 (Canadian) for "gjmgain" (wish I had more to play with, but unpaid intern, no work visa here, etc), you should be willing to put up anything less than $20.20...
Ah! But what if rather than money you had to put up that you would read the entire Theory of Instruction and the entire Research on Direct Instruction?
[NOTE: This was a discussion post asking if anyone would mind giving feedback on a very rough draft in progress.
If you are downvoting it because you do not want to see discussion posts asking for feedback like this, then by all means, that's a valid use of a downvote.
But if you are downvoting it in order to express your opinion of the quality of the draft, I urge you to reconsider]
This is another work in progress coming at the DI issue from a somewhat different direction. It's contained in the comments of the original, and I'm posting this to ask for more wonderful beta-reader critics to tell me if it's a step in the right direction. (It's still very informal writing, but it's the ideas I'm dealing with now.)
And about what I'm looking for in the LW audience, someone asked me in a private message:
And I said:
Well, that's the major part of what I want that's important here. I also had to add:
But that's not important here (except to disclose that is where I'm coming from). LWers would first have to understand DI to fully grasp that. And I am significantly less certain of my current beliefs about those 'strategic twists' (although still pretty certain), and LWers proficient in DI would be the best to evaluate the ideas.