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Logos01 comments on Contrarians judged mad after being proven right (John Hempton) - Less Wrong
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I'm personally wary of hindsight bias sort of stuff. Of course this all seems obvious to us now, but... would it have when we first examined it? I don't know.
That question reminds me of http://www.gladwell.com/2007/2007_01_08_a_secrets.html
As far as Sino Forestry goes; I haven't read the full analysis published that triggered it, but nothing in what I've read has mentioned hot new data which makes the fraud case convincing.