It seems to me that answering the question about the impact of such a war on a singularity requires and extremely detailed model of such a singularity, to the point that I think this question is pointless. For example, would such a war impact Moore's law? Does the rate of hardware advance impact the sign of the singularity?
Maybe discussion of the intermediate consequences of such a war would be useful, but no consequence claimed by any one on either thread is precise enough to use as input.
A lot of people seem to be jumping from delay to less likely singularity. While, ceteris paribus, delay is astronomical waste, and delay allows, say, asteroids to prevent the singularity, ceteris is not paribus. Anything that large event that causes a delay probably has a much larger effect on probability.
Last month I was involved in a conversation thread about what the impact of a hypothetical nuclear war would be on existential risk.
There are many potential nuclear war scenarios which would have varying impacts on existential risk. It's difficult to know where to start to gain an understanding of the long-term of nuclear proliferation.
For concreteness, consider the case of an India-Pakistan nuclear war.
According to Local Nuclear War, Global Suffering by Robock and Toon,
[...]
Note that this would presumably cause some degree of chaos in the developed world.
I have not yet investigated the credibility of the papers' claims. However,
Suppose that an all-out nuclear war between India and Pakistan were to occur and were to result in climate change killing 1 billion people. Then would the probability of a positive singularity increase or decrease and if so why?
This question seems very difficult to answer; maybe altogether too difficult for humans to answer. I welcome responses raising relevant considerations even in absence of a good way to compare the relevant considerations. Please read the linked conversation thread before commentating.