Tyrrell_McAllister comments on Gender differences in spatial reasoning appear to be nurture - Less Wrong

12 Post author: David_Gerard 03 September 2011 11:56AM

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Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 07 September 2011 04:38:11PM *  1 point [-]

From 1980 onwards there was a vast amount of evidence that the Soviet Union was in a state of rapid collapse - which evidence anyone who paid attention to academia rejected because it was incompatible root and branch with the world view of academia and with modern twentieth century history taught in Academia.

(Emphasis added.)

You are correct in saying that the conventional wisdom among academics was that the Soviet Union was not about to collapse. However, there were academics in academia and government who predicted the fall of the Soviet Union at least as precisely as Reagan did. And I see no evidence that anyone ever failed a course for predicting a rapid collapse of the Soviet Union.

Comment author: sam0345 09 September 2011 12:59:18AM 1 point [-]

Observe that Robert Gates furtively concealed the fact that it was he himself that was making the prediction, which suggests that making such a prediction might have bad consequences for one who made it.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 09 September 2011 03:17:36PM *  2 points [-]

Observe that Robert Gates furtively concealed the fact that it was he himself that was making the prediction

You seem to have misread the article.

Gates didn't predict the break-up of the Soviet Union. It was a business partner of Stephen Brand who made the prediction in a presentation that Gates saw. According to the article cited by the Wikipedia entry:

At this point, one of the CIA analysts jumped in. The presentation was fine, he said, but there was no way the Soviet Union was going to break up – not in his lifetime, not in his children's lifetime.

That analyst's name, said Brand, was Robert M Gates.

Gates was denying that the Soviet Union would break up, not predicting it. Gates "jumped in" on a presentation by someone else. It was that "someone else" who made the prediction.

What evidence supports your claim that Gates ever predicted the break-up of the Soviet Union?

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