Oops, there's the illusion of transparency. I meant that efficient markets take into account the expected future price of oil (if oil becomes very scarce the price will be high). Thus, current prices (which are not astronomical) strongly suggest that oil will not be super scarce in the medium term future. Any good discussion of future oil scarcity should take this seriously. Perhaps there are reasons why this doesn't quite apply, but you would have to introduce and discuss those reasons.
Oil does not need to become super scare to cause major problems. Right now the total supply and demand are quite closely matched. Reduce the supply just 10% and big problems happen.
To me the following points seem hard to argue against: