hegemonicon comments on Free research help, editing and article downloads for LessWrong - Less Wrong
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Thanks for looking at it.
Probability is on a per player basis (ie: each turn, a player has a chance p for detecting each undetected player). I'll edit this so it's more clear.
For LK (as well as LR and L_P), the term outside the summation is essentially (probability the player survives the whole game) * (game length). It's necessary since the game is of fixed length, and the summation is adding (probability of dying on turn x) * (turn x). Consider if the probability of detection is zero, and players will never die - without the term outside the summation, the expected lifetime calculation will return zero.
One more comment:
Is P(K survives turn i) correct? The formula assumes that the chances of surviving are all independent, but I'm not sure that would be true.
I didn't see anything else that stood out to me.
What are you trying to learn or show with the model?