abigailgem comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong
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The problem with this is that winning as a metric is swamped with random noise and different starting points.
Someone winning the lottery when you don't is not evidence that you are not being rational.
Someone whose parents were both high-paid lawyers making a fortune in business when you don't is not evidence that you are not being rational.
Yes, but...
Of course there is random noise and different starting points, but there is also some evidence of whether one is really rational. It is a question of epistemic rationality what Wins should accrue to Rational people, and what wins (eg, parentage, the lottery) do not.