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timtyler comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong
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I think Eliezer's point is closer to "Winning is the same as being right"; i.e., the evidence that you're right is that you won.
"Winning" and "being right" are different concepts. That is the point of distinguishing between epistemic and instrumental rationality.
Actually the problem is an ambiguity in "right" -- you can take the "right" course of action (instrumental rationality, or ethics), or you can have "right" belief (epistemic rationality).