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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong
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Hello. My name is Omega. Until recently I went around claiming to be all-knowing/psychic/whatever, but now I understand lying is Wrong, so I'm turning over a new leaf. I'd like to offer you a game.
Here are two boxes. Box A contains $1,000, box B contains $1,000,000. Both boxes are covered by touch-sensitive layer. If you choose box B only (please signal that by touching box B), it will send out a radio signal to box A, which will promptly disintegrate. If you choose both boxes (please signal that by touching box A first), a radio signal will be sent out to box B, which will disintegrate it's content, so opening it will reveal an empty box.
(I got the disintegrating technology from the wreck of a UFO that crashed into my barn, but that's not relevant here.)
I'm afraid, if I or my gadgets detect any attempt to temper with the operation of my boxes, I will be forced to disqualify you.
In case there is doubt, this is the same game I used to offer back in my deceitful days. The difference is, now the player knows the rules are enforced by cold hard electronics, so there's no temptation to try and outsmart anybody.
So, what will it be?
What is your point? You seem to be giving a metaphor for solving the problem by imagining that your action has a direct consequence of changing the past (and as a result, contents of the box in the present). More about that in this comment.
Naive argument coming up.
How Omega decides what to predict or what makes it's stated condition for B (aka. result of "prediction") come true, is not relevant. Ignoring the data that says it's always/almost always correct, however, seems ... not right. Any decision must be made with the understanding that Omega is most likely to predict it. You can't outsmart it by failing to update it's expected state of mind in the last second. The moment you decide to two-box is the moment Omega predicted, when it chose to empty box B.
Consider this:
Andy: "Sure, one box seems like the good choice, because Omega would take the million away otherwise. OK. ... Now that the boxes are in front of me, I'm thinking I should take both. Because, you know, two is better than one. And it's already decided, so my choice won't change anything. Both boxes."
Barry: "Sure, one box seems like the good choice, because Omega would take the million away otherwise. OK. ... Now that the boxes are in front of me, I'm thinking I should take both. Because, you know, two is better than one. Of course the outcome still depends on what Omega predicted. Say I choose both boxes. So if Omega's prediction is correct this time, I will find an empty B. But maybe Omega was wrong THIS time. Sure, and maybe THIS time I will also win the lottery. How it would have known is not relevant. The fact that O already acted on it's prediction doesn't make it more likely to be wrong. Really, what is the dilemma here? One box."
Ok, I don't expect that I'm the first person to say all this. But then, I wouldn't have expected anybody to two-box, either.
major said:
You're not the only person to wonder this. Either I'm missing something, or two-boxers just fail at induction.
I have to wonder how two-boxers would do on the "Hot Stove Problem."
In case you guys haven't heard of such a major problem in philosophy, I will briefly explain the Hot Stove Problem:
You have touched a hot stove 100 times. 99 times you have been burned. Nothing has changed about the stove that you know about. Do you touch it again?
I can see the relation to Newcomb - this is also a weird counterfactual that will never happen. I haven't deliberately touched a hot stove in my adult life, and don't expect to. I certainly won't get to 99 times.