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Jonathan_Graehl comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 02:41PM

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Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 03 April 2009 09:24:31PM 3 points [-]

For Newcomb's Problem, is it fair to say that if you believe the given information, the crux is whether you believe it's possible (for Omega) to have a 99%+ correct prediction of your decision based on the givens? Refusal to accept that seems to me the only justification for two-boxing. Perhaps that's a sign that I'm less tied to a fixed set of "rationalist" procedures than a perfect rationalist would be, but I would feel like I were pretending to say otherwise.

I also wonder if the many public affirmations I've heard of "I would one-box Newcomb's Problem" are attempts at convincing Omega to believe us in the unlikely event of actually encountering the Problem. It does give a similar sort of thrill to "God will rapture me to heaven."