orthonormal comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 02:41PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (252)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 03 April 2009 11:11:02PM *  4 points [-]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but pre-commitment isn't an option in Newcomb's problem, so the best, the most rational, the winning decision is two-boxing.

By construction, Omega's predictions are known to be essentially infallible. Given that, whatever you choose, you can safely assume Omega will have correctly predicted that choice. To what extent, then, is pre-commitment distinguishable from deciding on the spot?

In a sense there is an implicit pre-commitment in the structure of the problem; while you have not pre-committed to a choice on this specific problem, you are essentially pre-committed to a decision-making algorithm.

Eliezer's argument, if I understand it, is that any decision-making algorithm that results in two-boxing is by definition irrational due to giving a predictably bad outcome.

Comment author: orthonormal 04 April 2009 12:59:58AM 1 point [-]

In a sense there is an implicit pre-commitment in the structure of the problem; while you have not pre-committed to a choice on this specific problem, you are essentially pre-committed to a decision-making algorithm.

That's an interesting, and possibly fruitful, way of looking at the problem.