anonym comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 02:41PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 05:55:44PM 4 points [-]

Problem with that in human practice is that it leads to people defending their ruined plans, saying, "But my expected performance was great!" Vide the failed trading companies saying it wasn't their fault, the market had just done something that it shouldn't have done once in the lifetime of the universe. Achieving a win is much harder than achieving an expectation of winning (i.e. something that it seems you could defend as a good try).

Comment author: anonym 04 April 2009 01:55:43AM 5 points [-]

It sounds like the objection you're giving here is that "some people will misinterpret expected performance in the technical sense as expected performance in the colloquial sense (i.e., my guess as to how things will turn out)." That doesn't seem like much of a criticism though, and it doesn't sound severe enough to throw out what is a pretty standard definition. People will also misinterpret your alternate definition, as we have seen.

Do you have other objections?