Douglas_Knight comments on Rationality is Systematized Winning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 02:41PM

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Comment author: Douglas_Knight 05 April 2009 11:27:44PM 5 points [-]

If you've seen formalizations, then it is formalizable. What are the formalizations?

Since I think the answer is obviously one-box, it doesn't surprise me that there is a formalization in which that answer is obvious. I have never seen a formalization in which the answer is two-box. I have seen the argument that "causal decision theory" (?) chooses to two-box. People jump from that to the conclusion that the answer is two-box, but that is an idiotic conclusion. Given the premise, the correct conclusion is that this decision theory is inadequate. Anyhow, I don't believe the argument. I interpret it simply as the decision theory failing to believe the statement of the problem. There is a disconnect between the words and the formalization of that decision theory.

The issue is not about formalizing Newcomb's problem; the problem is creating a formal decision theory that can understand a class of scenarios including Newcomb's problem. (It should be possible to tweak the usual decision theory to make it capable of believing Newcomb's problem, but I don't think that would be adequate for a larger class of problems.)