rwallace comments on Incremental Progress and the Valley - Less Wrong
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Still, if everyone who does succeed has an irrational belief in their own success, then it's not wrong to conclude that such a belief is probably a prerequisite (though certainly not a "guarantee") for success.
I think the best approach is a slightly more sophisticated one: commit to the belief that there is a way to succeed and you will find it - but not necessarily that you have already found it.