lessdazed comments on 9/11 as mindkiller - Less Wrong

12 Post author: NancyLebovitz 12 September 2011 05:44PM

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Comment author: lessdazed 13 September 2011 04:37:13AM 1 point [-]

I suspect that people here overestimate both the advantage of intelligence and the advantage of rationality in making predictions about the world.

Overestimate the advantages to making the best prediction in a field of predictors, are right about the advantages to avoid making the worst prediction in a field of predictors.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 14 September 2011 01:43:43AM 0 points [-]

I don't understand what you mean. Can you expand?

Comment author: lessdazed 14 September 2011 08:08:53AM 2 points [-]

Rationality prevents you from thinking a Soviet invasion of Poland followed by a break in US-Soviet relations is more likely than a break in US-Soviet relations. It doesn't help much in estimating either.

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