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wedrifid comments on Rationality tip: Predict your comment karma - Less Wrong
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It is certainly close to 'best not to post'. There are some times where posting things that you know will be negatively received is worth doing anyway. But it doesn't work well if you try it too frequently. You end up with a reputation as a crockpot at best either in general or specific to one topic. 'Qualia' and 'quantum monadology' spring to mind as past examples. Will is risking getting his own reputation on the subject of theism.
I'm pretty sure I passed that threshold awhile ago. At least many of my comments get systematically downvoted without getting read these days. ETA: And not just ones that have to do with "theism" (more like theology).
There is not one reputation on a forum like this, where people don't engage in gossip about other users. You have as many reputations as many users are here. So even if somebody is downvoting your comments without reading them (by the way, are you sure about that?), it still doesn't mean that you can't lose more reputation.
Yes. (It would be a weird hypothesis for me to come up with with little evidence and then assert confidently.)
I wasn't claiming I can't lose more reputation.
How did you manage to test it?
Refreshed the page every 5 seconds. If all my comments get downvoted at once that is strong evidence that they weren't actually read, especially if it happens more than once.
There's also a precedent, I dunno if you saw my discussion post about karmassassination.
I am considering making a thread in which people type, for reinforcement, a sentence emphasizing how little they know about votes they receive. What do you think of "I do not know why my comment got the votes it got"? It doesn't reflect partial knowledge or educated guesses enough to be perfect, can you think of better?
The point of Bayesian thinking is that you should have an idea why things are happening. If you genuinely don't know why your comments are getting the votes it did, then ask. This is not a shy forum. You'll build up a few data points and can resume being a competent Bayesian with a pretty good idea why you're getting the votes you do.
You end up with a reputation as a poor communicator. Unpopular but non-obviously stupid ideas that a person (or paperclip maximizer, etc.) tries to articulate are not punished, like here. That came to mind since I participated in the conversation but there are many other examples on LW.
What? No you don't. You end up with a reputation as a poor communicator when you communicate poorly, which is a different thing altogether.
I am assuming that non-stupid ideas well communicated will not be negatively received.