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lessdazed comments on Rationality tip: Predict your comment karma - Less Wrong
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It is certainly close to 'best not to post'. There are some times where posting things that you know will be negatively received is worth doing anyway. But it doesn't work well if you try it too frequently. You end up with a reputation as a crockpot at best either in general or specific to one topic. 'Qualia' and 'quantum monadology' spring to mind as past examples. Will is risking getting his own reputation on the subject of theism.
You end up with a reputation as a poor communicator. Unpopular but non-obviously stupid ideas that a person (or paperclip maximizer, etc.) tries to articulate are not punished, like here. That came to mind since I participated in the conversation but there are many other examples on LW.
What? No you don't. You end up with a reputation as a poor communicator when you communicate poorly, which is a different thing altogether.
I am assuming that non-stupid ideas well communicated will not be negatively received.