The Revolutionary War angle is interesting, but I think it's hard to figure out the implications of that huge a counterfactual.

That is true; but if one really is agnostic, doesn't that argue against the Revolution, and actually strongly against it? You shouldn't kill and wound 100,000 people (Wikipedia's military count alone) and cause the self-exile of >62,000 refugees for something you don't know to even be a net benefit!