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lessdazed comments on Wanted: backup plans for "seed AI turns out to be easy" - Less Wrong
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Don't worry, I'm not saying it would work! We might put similar odds on it, or maybe not - less than .5 and more than .001, I'm not sure about what the full range of fleshing out the possible scenarios would look like, but there's probably a way in which I could fill in variables to end up with a .05 confidence in a specific scenario working out.