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jimrandomh comments on Fix My Head - Less Wrong
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Okay. I'll accept any bet that gives me better than 1:3 odds, up to a maximum risk of $100.
Please don't set up a perverse incentive to misdiagnose yourself, though.
I was thinking I'd just go to the doctor and ask to be tested for celiac. Since apparently the tests don't work if you haven't been eating gluten lately. Will that suffice?
Help me out with the odds: if you risk $100 how much would I be risking?
You'd be risking an amount of your choosing up to a maximum of $33 1/3.
I'll take a round thirty against your ninety, is that okay?
Apologies, but Molybdenumblue bet against half my limit threshold before you, which makes the combination of these two above my limit. Also, in a comment before that I specified a 10-to-25 ratio (to make myself favor the bet, rather than be indifferent). I can bet 20 against 50 under the same terms I gave her; is that okay?
I have an appointment tomorrow (although I don't know if they will test me that very day or not; it may not be sufficiently routine). Molybdenumblue offered to withdraw, and I'm not very pleased with moving the goalposts from the initial odds ratio you'd offered (I'd've taken my $20 against your $50 if that were your original offer, but changing it later makes a social negotiation module in my brain complain). Do you want to bet my $30 versus your $90 or not?
Suggested parameters: I will get tested for celiac. If the test comes back positive, you win; if it comes back negative, I win; if for some reason the doctor thinks I can't reasonably have celiac and won't test me for it, the bet's off; if I turn out to have some non-celiac condition like an allergy that nevertheless means I have to avoid gluten/wheat, bet is off; if the doctor wants to pursue other possible explanations for my headaches first and one of them turns out to be correct, I win; if the test comes back inconclusive and the doctor tells me to go without gluten for a period of time such that I'm willing to try it, then the bet turns out according to the results of the dietary test; if the doctor says I need to try going without gluten for six months or something really intrusive like that without compelling evidence that I have celiac, I'm not going to do that, and the bet is off. If none of these conditions obtains by New Year's, bet is off.
Accepted.
(I edited in another clause about the ambiguous case where I have, like, a wheat allergy or something else that is similar to but not identical to celiac; I can revise that if you want.)
Accepted. (I think this case coming up is very improbable.)
Sprue screening came back in the mail today. Negative. Do you want to see a scan of it, or just paypal me the ninety bucks? alicorn24@gmail.com is the paypal address :)
bread bread bread yay bread bread bread yay
Any news?
Not yet. I should be getting it soon, supposedly.
If this is a problem I can withdraw.
Minimum (you'd hardly want to risk $100 for $1 on a 95% probability).
Is this offer only open to Alicorn?
The offer's open to anyone, as long as the sum of all bets made so far is less than my maximum.
To make the numbers round, and give myself a little expected-profit margin, I'll put up $25 against each $10 someone else puts up. Bets settle via PayPal, in my favor if a diagnosis of celiac disease is reached, in your favor if a different diagnosis is made and confirmed, or if no diagnosis has been made by Jan 1.
I guess it would be kind of a dick move to monopolize the bet, so I'll put up $20.
Accepted. ($20 against $50, exact terms in this comment)
It wouldn't hurt to spell out the steps Alicorn should take to rule in or out a diagnosis of celiac, since the blood test isn't completely reliable. It's my understanding that following a gluten free diet can be challenging at first, one needs to carefully read labels. Salad dressings, sauces, etc. often contain gluten. A friend of mine bought a separate toaster for her daughter who has celiac. I suggest specifying a set time period that he should follow a gluten free diet while keeping a diary listing all foods eaten, as well as any symptoms.
(she)
Thank you.
Hey, if the blood test says I don't have celiac, I am not going to follow a miserable complicated diet for weeks just to win a bet.
I can understand your reluctance. May I suggest the following? How about if you get the blood test? If it's positive, then you'll know the problem and can fix your head. If it's negative, you really should work with a doctor and see if he can figure out what it is. Ask him to check out some of the other things suggested. If none of them solve your headaches, then you can try the gluten free diet - to be sure.
As far as the bet goes- what conditions are set are between you and Jim, I just think they should be clearly established, to avoid any misunderstandings. I strongly suspect that he's more interested in helping you figure out the cause of your headaches then in winning a bet.
I know people with celiac who follow the gluten free diet. My impression is that it takes some getting used to, but it isn't that miserable or complicated, once you get used to it. Nowadays supermarkets like Whole Foods have gluten free sections where you can buy special mixes, etc. which helps.
If Alicorn has celiac, then her quality of life will improve if she avoids gluten. However, this might not prevent her headaches.