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Molybdenumblue comments on Fix My Head - Less Wrong
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Comments (182)
Is this offer only open to Alicorn?
The offer's open to anyone, as long as the sum of all bets made so far is less than my maximum.
To make the numbers round, and give myself a little expected-profit margin, I'll put up $25 against each $10 someone else puts up. Bets settle via PayPal, in my favor if a diagnosis of celiac disease is reached, in your favor if a different diagnosis is made and confirmed, or if no diagnosis has been made by Jan 1.
I guess it would be kind of a dick move to monopolize the bet, so I'll put up $20.
Accepted. ($20 against $50, exact terms in this comment)
It wouldn't hurt to spell out the steps Alicorn should take to rule in or out a diagnosis of celiac, since the blood test isn't completely reliable. It's my understanding that following a gluten free diet can be challenging at first, one needs to carefully read labels. Salad dressings, sauces, etc. often contain gluten. A friend of mine bought a separate toaster for her daughter who has celiac. I suggest specifying a set time period that he should follow a gluten free diet while keeping a diary listing all foods eaten, as well as any symptoms.
(she)
Thank you.
Hey, if the blood test says I don't have celiac, I am not going to follow a miserable complicated diet for weeks just to win a bet.
I can understand your reluctance. May I suggest the following? How about if you get the blood test? If it's positive, then you'll know the problem and can fix your head. If it's negative, you really should work with a doctor and see if he can figure out what it is. Ask him to check out some of the other things suggested. If none of them solve your headaches, then you can try the gluten free diet - to be sure.
As far as the bet goes- what conditions are set are between you and Jim, I just think they should be clearly established, to avoid any misunderstandings. I strongly suspect that he's more interested in helping you figure out the cause of your headaches then in winning a bet.
I know people with celiac who follow the gluten free diet. My impression is that it takes some getting used to, but it isn't that miserable or complicated, once you get used to it. Nowadays supermarkets like Whole Foods have gluten free sections where you can buy special mixes, etc. which helps.
If Alicorn has celiac, then her quality of life will improve if she avoids gluten. However, this might not prevent her headaches.