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PhilGoetz comments on On dollars, utility, and crack cocaine - Less Wrong
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Sure, causality runs both ways. My point is that the idea that crack use is a rational decision predicts that crack use will be higher when the odds of dying or of spending much of your life in prison are higher. And that is what we see. It's a falsifiable test, and the idea passes the test.
Are there studies of behavior changes for terminally ill people? That wouldn't probe changes in financial behavior - winning the lottery isn't useful to someone with pancreatic cancer. Do we see recreational drug use rise?