gwern comments on Selection Effects in estimates of Global Catastrophic Risk - Less Wrong
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A Pravda article about an accounting glitch is not terribly convincing. Accounting problems do not even mean that the bombs were accessible at any point (assuming they existed), much less that they have been available 'on the "black market" (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades'! Srsly.
(Nor do lost submarines count; the US and Russia have difficulties in recovering them, black-market groups are right out, even the drug cartels can barely build working shallow subs.)
You've missed the point of what I was asserting with that article.
I was demonstrating that the Soviets did not keep proper track of their nuclear weapons, to the point where even they did not know how many they had. The rest follows from there with public-knowledge information not the least of which being the extremity of corruption that existed in the CCCP.