I felt it was reasonable to extrapolate from this for the sake of an anecdotal comment on a discussion post.
It would if the anecdotal comment was at least Bayesian evidence for the claim in question.
But by all means, if you need every statement I made to be qualified with direct evidence, you should seek better sources than my off the cuff remarks. I never claimed otherwise.
I didn't expect scientific evidence. What I do expect is for valid evidence of some kind, even anecdotal. Your statement was a complete non sequitur. Sorry, if this wasn't clear.
Agreed, this conclusion is a non sequitur. Regardless of what the average success rate is, some players and teams are more skilled than others and will consistently succeed at a higher rate. People are much better than 50-50 at predicting which team will win a game (and there is a large industry centered in Las Vegas which depends on accurate estimates of these probabilities), which shows that it's not just random
This is not relevant at all. I am saying that there will be a 0.5 OBP for the game as a whole, not for specific players or teams. The statisti...
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/09/22/cognitive-biases-in-sports-the-irrationality-of-coaches-commentators-and-fans/