Desrtopa comments on Living bias, not thinking bias - Less Wrong

19 Post author: crazy88 23 September 2011 08:30AM

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Comment author: thomblake 23 September 2011 03:32:07PM 2 points [-]

No, I read the grandparent, and I doubt I have such a definition.

Yes, people smoke cigarettes, and let's assume for the sake of argument that it counts as "significantly harmful". Now imagine (hypothetically) that the same mechanism of thought also causes them to pursue lifestyles that grant them an overall 20% increase in healthy lifespan as compared to nonsmokers. In that scenario, the bias that causes smoking cigarettes is not "significantly harmful on average".

Now consider another hypothetical where people smoke cigarettes due to their biases, and other people without those biases have a significantly higher incidence of being run over by buses. Then, the biases that cause smoking cigarettes are not "significantly harmful on average" as compared to the alternative.

Of course some of our biases are going to be a hindrance in everyday life.

I see you assuming exactly what taw claims we're assuming. I don't see you citing any empirical studies showing that it is the case.

Comment author: Desrtopa 23 September 2011 03:45:36PM *  8 points [-]

Yes, people smoke cigarettes, and let's assume for the sake of argument that it counts as "significantly harmful". Now imagine (hypothetically) that the same mechanism of thought also causes them to pursue lifestyles that grant them an overall 20% increase in healthy lifespan as compared to nonsmokers. In that scenario, the bias that causes smoking cigarettes is not "significantly harmful on average".

If anything like this were the case, I expect insurance companies would have picked up on it by now. It's possible to imagine a situation where the same bias balances out to not being harmful, but we have enough evidence to strongly suspect that doesn't describe the world we live in.