JoshuaZ comments on Particles break light-speed limit? - Less Wrong
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The consequence of the FTL neutrinos CERN thinks they found at six sigma significance is not the breakdown of causality. You can have faster than light neutrinos without backwards propagation of information. This is not the end of normality, but a new normality, one where Lorentz invariance is broken. This would mean that there is a universal reference class that trumps but doesn't destroy relativity. If anything, a universal reference class seems like a stronger causal structure than relativity.
This whole thing would be so normal, that there's a pre-existing effective field theory called the Standard Model Extension. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard-Model_Extension
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorentz_transformation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorentz_covariance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorentz-violating_neutrino_oscillations
is suggested WIkipedia skimming, http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2005/10/25/lorentz-invariance-and-you/ is what gave me the intuition of the universal inertial frame.
I'm at around 10% odds on this whole thing seeming like weak consensus in 3 years and something like >80% odds (on a very very long bet) that locally possible FTL information travel is possible outside of the local structure of causality.
Hmm, would you be willing to bet on either the 10% claim or the 80% claim?
Everything you have said until the last paragraph seems reasonable to me, and then those extremely high probabilities jump out.