Manfred comments on Trouble with Bayes Theorem? (The actual math is confusing) - Less Wrong

8 Post author: TheatreAddict 25 September 2011 04:49AM

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Comment author: Manfred 25 September 2011 05:15:30AM 3 points [-]

You can think of accounting for the base rate as equivalent to using the actual numbers.

How many women have cancer and test positive? 0.8 probability * 0.01 population. How many women don't have cancer and test positive? 0.096 probability * 0.99 population.