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shokwave comments on Trouble with Bayes Theorem? (The actual math is confusing) - Less Wrong
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Thanks. I'm pretty sure I understand now. Although I'm not sure why I get the correct answer when I'm working with the actual numbers and not percentages when I do the math wrong.
But when I do the math like you wrote, I get the right answer for the precentages. So I get that part. But aren't I ignoring the base rate in the actual numbers one? Or no?
I know it now makes more sense to you now, but I want to point out that reality isn't school, and nobody is going to take marks off for using actual numbers or ratios instead of percentages (the 'pure' way that the teacher prefers or what-have-you).
A calculator more reliably gets me the answer than mental arithmetic, and so I use a calculator at work even though it seems lazier than doing it in my head - in the same way, if ratios and actual numbers more reliably let you use Bayes Theorem than percentages, use actual numbers and all the people who think it's purer to use percentages be damned.
I'm awfully glad to here that, I'm not a big fan of percentages... Real numbers just come easier to me, I suppose.
Once I figure out the formulat itself, then I feel comfortable using a calculator, but I hate using a calculator if I don't understand the mental math to begin with.