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ahartell comments on SIAI vs. FHI achievements, 2008-2010 - Less Wrong
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Small correction: HP:MoR is the most reviewed Harry Potter fanfiction of all time. I did a quick search for Twilight fanfiction and found a story with 14,822 reviews compared with 14,710 reviews for HP:MoR. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the number to beat (twilight is a very popular fanfiction topic as far as I know) but due to the disorganization of fanfiction.net, it's hard to say.
Unexpected Circumstances - Reviews: 23,004.
Parachute - Reviews: 16,633.
Fridays at Noon - Reviews 15,162.
I found these using this search.
So MoR is now past both Parachutes and Fridays at Noon. Still needs to pass Unexpected Circumstances (now at 24,163). When will it pass? Well:
18911/992=19.1reviews per day Status: In Progress24163/725=33.3reviews per day Status: CompleteObviously if UC doesn't see its review rate decline, it'll never be passed by MoR; let's assume it goes to zero (not too unrealistic since UC is finished and MoR is not), how many days will it take MoR to catch up?
(24163-18911) / (18911/992) = 275.5.So barring a major acceleration in MoR reviews, we can't expect MoR to pass UC within much less than a year, but it's not too unlikely to pass in a full year (November 2013) and in 2 years I'd consider it likely to highly-likely to pass.
One measure of a multi-chapter fanfic quality is reviews/chapter, and I don't think that HPMOR is likely to catch up to UC in the near future by that metric.
Well, one can argue that reviews/chapter isn't necessarily the best metric, but you're right: since UC is currently less than half the length of MoR and still has more reviews, it will be a long time before reviews/chapter catches up if ever.
After substantial additional work ( http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#the-review-race-unexpected-circumstances-versus-mor ), I've concluded that omitting UC's reviews is a drastic simplification and when one takes into account the slow accretion, MoR is more likely to catch up in <5 years than <2 years.
I'm sure Eliezer is writing Twilight fanfiction as we speak. It's an untapped market and would help with the demographics!
Any suggestions for the title?
...how about Luminosity?