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jkaufman comments on How Likely Is Cryonics To Work? - Less Wrong
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Say I went into this thinking my chance of being frozen correctly was 95%. Now, with more details on what has to go right for this to happen, I think 86% is a better estimate. Details don't have to make things less favorable. They just usually do because we are optimistic.
EDIT: that "correctly" above should have been an "incorrectly".
...but then you think and research for longer, and find out in even more detail what could go wrong, and your estimate drops to 80%. If you can predict which direction your belief will move in the future, something went wrong somewhere.
I'm sorry, I meant to write "incorrectly".