jkaufman comments on How Likely Is Cryonics To Work? - Less Wrong

18 Post author: jkaufman 25 September 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: jkaufman 26 September 2011 01:40:26PM * 3 points [-]

This works if they are all independent probabilities. But some of them are clearly not.

I tried to define them to be independent:

[3] ... "all my probability guesses are conditional on everything above them not happening"

So my probabilities were supposed to be like:

P(failure1)
P(failure2|-failure1)
P(failure3|-failure2&-failure1)
P(failure4|-failure3&-failure2&-failure1)

In some cases they are probably unrelated. Then we can simplify:

P(society falls apart | nothing goes wrong in freezing you)

can be almost perfectly approximated as

P(society falls apart)

Comment author: JoshuaZ 26 September 2011 01:50:04PM 1 point [-]

Right, but some of them are clearly not independent. See my example of forms of deaths where they are essentially exclusive.