dilaudid comments on How Likely Is Cryonics To Work? - Less Wrong

18 Post author: jkaufman 25 September 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: dilaudid 03 October 2011 02:53:48PM 0 points [-]

Belief is pretty unambiguous - being sure of (100% probability, like cogito ergo sum), or a strong trust (not nearly 90% probability is not belief). So it seems we are in agreement, you don't believe in it, and neither do most less wrong readers. I agree that based on that argument, whether the probability is 10^-1000 or 75%, is still up for debate.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 03 October 2011 02:58:04PM *  3 points [-]

If that's your definition of belief then it may not be that relevant. If I there's a game where someone roles a pair of fair six-sided dice and will give me five dollars if I can guess their sum, my best strategy is to guess 7 even though I don't by your definition believe that 7 will turn up. In this context this becomes a less than helfpul notation.

Also, if this is what you meant, I'm a bit confused by why you brought it up. Many prominent cryonics proponents give estimates well below 90%. So what point were you trying to make?