satt comments on Stanislav Petrov Day - Less Wrong

35 Post author: gwern 26 September 2011 02:49PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 27 September 2011 03:19:06PM 3 points [-]

If he qualifies by virtue of the above, then a campaign to give him a Nobel Peace Prize seems the thing to do.

Definitely. And until such time as he is granted the Nobel Peace Prize the whole system should be ridiculed as an utter farce.

Comment author: satt 27 September 2011 11:35:16PM 6 points [-]

Wouldn't be the first time they dropped the ball, either.

Comment author: wedrifid comment score below threshold [+] (76 children)

Comment author: gwern 27 September 2011 11:52:31PM * 7 points [-]

Why does Gandhi deserve a Peace prize? Would that be for telling the Jews to offer themselves to Hitler to be executed and saying "Hitler is not a bad man", or for responding to the Indian massacres (millions dead) with fasting, or perhaps some still other meritorious action?

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 04:11:08AM 2 points [-]

Indian massacres (millions dead)

Um, millions? Do you mean massacres by the British, or Hindu-Muslim violence?

Comment author: [deleted] 28 September 2011 04:27:06AM 2 points [-]

It's probably not accurate to say more than one million people were killed during partition, but some 10 or 20 million people were forcibly moved from their homes, long distances. That's a lot of lamentable suffering, even if it's short of genocide.

Post-partition Hindu-Muslim violence, and other kinds of sectarian violence, probably do not approach one million dead.

Comment author: gwern 28 September 2011 03:02:09PM 1 point [-]

The latter, obviously. The British, being squishy Western types, would never have gotten anywhere near massacring millions.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 03:27:26PM 8 points [-]

Both the French and Germans massacred millions contemporaneously, which suggests that Westerners were willing to massacre millions, so long as they have a reason. It seems likely that the British would have done the same if India had sought independence through war, and thus Gandhi's push for nonviolent tactics averted a potentially tremendous loss of human life.

As for the partition, not only is a single million the highest estimate of the death toll, Gandhi was opposed to it, worked to reduce violence during it, and was assassinated in part because of his friendliness towards Muslims and desire to improve Pakistan-India relations. I do not understand why you deride his fasting, as it appears to have been the most effective tactic available to him, and did actually influence those around him rather than just accrue karma.

I agree with you that Gandhi's letter to the Jews was probably bad advice, but will also point out that Denmark had a positive experience with nonviolent resistance (whether or not that worked against the Nazis because Danes were Aryan is unknown). However, prizes must be given to humans, and thus people are judged on net rather than for lack of blemishes. I am sure you are aware of reasons for Gandhi to be given the prize, and in the spirit of ahimsa plead you to perform a calming activity then return to this discussion with a clear heart.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 12:04:13AM * 1 point [-]

Why does Gandhi deserve a Peace prize? Would that be for telling the Jews to offer themselves to Hitler to be executed and saying "Hitler is not a bad man", or for responding to the Indian massacres (millions dead) with fasting, or perhaps some still other meritorious action?

You left out "the greatest inspiration for manipulative passive-aggression that the world has ever seen!"

I consider your question disingenuous, inappropriate and not nearly as clever as it is intended. That Ghandi had a positive influence towards peacefulness in the civil disobedience in his immediate environment is clear. He also had a powerful influence in making the British look like dicks for being the aggressive ones which is an even greater win for 'peace' and gave his side the moral high ground. That he was ineffective in dealing with Hitler is worse than irrelevant. It's a peace prize and World War II wasn't a time for being peaceful. Peaceful strategies were contraindicated.

I don't tend to have much respect for rhetorical questions for which the literal answer to the question refutes the intended point.

Comment author: gwern 28 September 2011 12:24:19AM 2 points [-]

That Ghandi had a positive influence towards peacefulness in the civil disobedience in his immediate environment is clear.

Am I missing a joke here to the effect that the Peace prize should be awarded even, or especially, to those who promoted peaceful efforts despite the horrific consequences of such peacefulness (in both examples I gave, the Holocaust and the megadeaths accompanying Indian independence - which might not have happened at all without Ghandi and so can be laid at his door)?

It's a peace prize and World War II wasn't a time for being peaceful. Peaceful strategies were contraindicated.

Which is exactly what Ghandi suggested, yet the inclusion of this point suggests you think that it somehow makes Ghandi look good. ??? Again, I suspect I'm missing some subtle joke you're making.

Comment author: [deleted] 28 September 2011 12:53:37AM * 3 points [-]

Close to a million people were horribly murdered in partition. Indian independence, like American independence, was a mixed bag. But It's not clear that the British could have prevented it, they were dead broke at the end of WW2.

Of course that leads one to wonder how influential Gandhi and Quit India actually were.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 September 2012 12:24:02PM 4 points [-]

On the other hand, salt starvation has consequences, especially in a hot climate where diarrheal diseases are common. The salt tax was ended as soon as India became independent.

Illness is a major cause of salt depletion (Black 1953, 305-11). People who are already low on salt are particularly vulnerable. Large quantities of salt can be lost in fever-sweat, in vomit, and most of all in diarrhoea (Marriott 1950, 32-4). This should be continually replenished. Severe diarrhoeas can drain as much as 1 ¾ ounces of salt from the body in a single day, and thus quickly lead to severe dehydration. Without intravenous infusion of saline solution – not an option in the period being considered – recovery would have been unlikely (Souhami and Moxham 1990, 849). However, milder diarrhoeas, which as any traveller can relate are common in India, can over a few days also lead to severe depletion (Marriott 1950, 33). Rehydration can only be effected with the intake of salt. Without this salt, however much water is drunk, recovery is impossible. Many diarrhoeas are self limiting – that is they terminate of their own accord, without drugs, after a few days. Rotavirus diarrhoea, which “is the commonest cause of diarrhoea in children up to 2 years old in the tropics” (Souhami and Moxham, 257), is an important example. It is essential to keep the body from dehydrating, and salt is necessary for this. The main ingredient of modern oral rehydration solutions is salt (257).

Mild salt depletion, resulting from insufficient salt in the diet, produces “extreme lassitude” (Marriott 1950, 40). This will, of course, reduce economic output. For people already on the edge of starvation, insufficient salt will set up a cycle of economic decline.

Comment author: [deleted] 27 September 2012 02:16:22AM 2 points [-]

There is a lot I don't know about this, but I'm sure you're right that the salt taxes cost lives. But at independence the taxes had been deeply unpopular for more than a hundred years, so it's not clear to me whether to credit Gandhi for ending them. I had thought that it would be interesting to know whether they had been phased out in Pakistan as well, where Gandhi is not so popular, but it seems that Nehru ended them a few months before partition.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 12:30:45AM * 8 points [-]

I consider blaming the Holocaust on Ghandi to be utterly absurd. I don't know what the cause of your problem with Ghandi is but that claim is just... odd. Ghandi couldn't have pulled that off if he tried.

Which is exactly what Ghandi suggested, yet the inclusion of this point suggests you think that it somehow makes Ghandi look good. ???

No, it is just part of what makes your ridicule look petty. Ghandi recommending others do what worked for him is an example of misplaced other optimising. Given that he was just a popular figure in an entirely unrelated country and the advice he gave was no more futile than anything else they could have tried to prevent the Nazi's doing what they did the advice he gave is not especially relevant.

Comment author: SilasBarta 28 September 2011 04:18:09PM 2 points [-]

Gandhi was the prime pick right before he got shot. All the other times he was on the shortlist, the Committee claims there were serious reservations about his commitment to peace.

A mistake on the part of the Nobel Committee, sure, but not as bad as you're suggesting.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 04:26:38AM 3 points [-]

Gandhi didn't get a Nobel Peace prize?

The Nobel Prize is generally for longevity; Gandhi died only a few years after independence. They essentially awarded him the prize posthumously, which is an honor I believe only given to him.

I now feel personally insulted on the behalf of my species by the entire Nobel Peace prize institution.

Keep your identity small!

Comment author: SilasBarta 28 September 2011 05:38:26PM * 2 points [-]

The Nobel Prize is generally for longevity;

It's my understanding that the Peace Prize is the one case where that doesn't hold, because it's often given to grant support to a nascent, positive movement:

Unlike the scientific and literary Nobel Prizes, usually issued in retrospect, often two or three decades after the awarded achievement, the Peace Prize has been awarded for more recent or immediate achievements.

(And there was certainly no wait for longevity in the 2009 award to the recently-elected Obama, even if he did deserve it.)

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 05:43:25PM 1 point [-]

This is true; the explanation you posted in another part of this thread was a superior explanation of why he wasn't going to get it until 1948. People dying before they receive any Nobel prize is common, however, though you are right that it is less so for the Peace prize.

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 07:57:38PM * 2 points [-]

People dying before they receive any Nobel prize is common, however, though you are right that it is less so for the Peace prize.

People killing before they receive Nobels other than the Nobel Peace prize is less common, however, so it balances out.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 07:25:25AM * -1 points [-]

The Nobel Prize is generally for longevity; Gandhi died only a few years after independence. They essentially awarded him the prize posthumously, which is an honor I believe only given to him.

Is that a typographical error of some kind? Gandhi never got the prize.

Keep your identity small!

Excuse me? Apart from being an instance of bullshit in its own right, a farcical peace prize awarded for the wrong reasons can be expected to have an instrumentally negative influence on the world. Resolving such an institution to negative emotional association is an entirely appropriate extrapolation from the core of my identity. Including an exception for farcical peace prizes would introduce complexity to my identity that I don't desire.

Please refrain from telling me what my identity should be. It's, um, mine.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 02:03:00PM 8 points [-]

Is that a typographical error of some kind? Ghandi never got the prize.

The prize was not awarded in 1948 because "there was no suitable living candidate." It was not clear whether or not the committee was allowed to award prizes posthumously and they decided they were unable to, but would do it symbolically.

Please refrain from telling me what my identity should be. It's, um, mine.

Ok. Instead of advice, I'll give you a statement: being offended about something you insufficiently researched makes you look bad. Being offended on the behalf of Gandhi makes little sense- why would he want more conflict because of him?- and being offended on the behalf of your species makes less sense. The Nobel Prize committee is beholden to Alfred Nobel and none other.

There are good reasons to consider the Nobel Peace Prize farcical, but their treatment of Gandhi is not a good one.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 03:20:24PM * 3 points [-]

Instead of advice, I'll give you a statement: being offended about something you insufficiently researched makes you look bad.

You are certainly trying hard to make me look bad but regardless of whether you are successful in persuading your audience I reject your claim. I have more than enough evidence to conclude that I would prefer a peace prize that is awarded to Stanislav Petrov and Gandhi than one awarded to Yasser Arafat and Al Gore. Or Barack Obama for that matter. That's like awarding little Johnny US the Encouragement Award because he punched and stole the lunch money of slightly fewer of his classmates this week.

Being offended on the behalf of Gandhi makes little sense- why would he want more conflict because of him?

Is there anything I have ever said or done on lesswrong that gives the impression that I have anything like Ghandi's philosophy for dealing with conflict? Gandhi's tactics are highly situational and work only for those particularly adept at judging and manipulating public opinion and for those who are too helpless to do anything to improve their circumstances. No, my advice for the most practical and ethical way of dealing with oppressors is to not protest at all, not let them know that you oppose them and systematically assassinate all their leaders until they leave.

I further suggest that if you don't think Gandhi's example would be consistent with getting offended by things then you totally missed the point of what he did. The guy did hunger strikes and silly walks to fetch salt as a way to broadcast how offensive things are. He wasn't nice, he just wielded offense and public opinion as his weapons.

and being offended on the behalf of your species makes less sense. The Nobel Prize committee is beholden to Alfred Nobel and none other.

Again, you miss the point. The Nobel Prize committee is beholden to Alfred Nobel. The rest of the world, including myself, are not. The rest of the world are free to make it, as wikipedia puts it, "a highly regarded award, recognised internationally" or to marginalise it as a bad joke by a meaningless institution. We as individuals can then evaluate the aesthetic appeal and expected consequences of the 'Peace' prize awarded as it is. We can also consider how public opinion of the prize as a respected institution reflects on human psychology.

Comment author: Yvain 28 September 2011 03:54:45PM 13 points [-]

The Peace Prize has a very poorly defined mission.

Some third world activist who leads a social movement earns a lot of warm fuzzies, but probably doesn't affect the world very much (let's say Maathai).

Someone who pursues a naturally partisan and controversial goal peacefully probably produces a lot of conflict, but less conflict than they would have if they were violent about it. (Gandhi)

Some dictator or lunatic who mellows out and murders less than usual probably has a very large beneficial effect on the world, compared to his usual murder rate (Arafat and the Israelis).

The leader of a very large country, like the United States or the Soviet Union, can have a greater positive influence on the world just by being a fraction of a percent nicer than the average person, than the leader of a small country, or a private individual, can have by being an amazing saint (Obama).

And some random person in the right place at the right time may have a very large effect in terms of sheer scale, but be questionable in terms of genuine virtue (Petrov).

If about 60% of people, in Petrov's situation, would have done what he did, is it better to give the prize to him, or to some activist who has spent her whole life tirelessly struggling for freedom despite adversity?

I'm not a big fan of the Nobel committee's decisions, but given the pressures they face and the confusion of their task I don't think they've done a ridiculously inadequate job.

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 05:12:32PM 8 points [-]

I'm not a big fan of the Nobel committee's decisions, but given the pressures they face and the confusion of their task I don't think they've done a ridiculously inadequate job.

Hypothetically, if Nobel had been a sociopath and instituted a "Nobel War Prize" or "Nobel Deadly Conflict Prize" with an equally poorly defined mission, how inadequately would you judge their work had they given the award to exactly the same recipients as were actually awarded the Peace Prize?

The 2004 prize went to Wangari Maathai "for her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace". She was reported by the Kenyan newspaper Standard and Radio Free Europe to have stated that HIV/AIDS was originally developed by Western scientists in order to depopulate Africa.

The 1989 prize was awarded to the 14th Dalai Lama. This wasn't well-accepted by the Chinese government, which cited his separatist tendencies. Additionally, the Nobel Prize Committee cited their intention to put pressure on China.

The 1945 prize was awarded to Cordell Hull as "Former Secretary of State; Prominent participant in the originating of the UN". Hull was Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Secretary of State during the SS St. Louis Crisis. The St. Louis sailed from Hamburg in the summer of 1939 carrying over 950 Jewish refugees, seeking asylum from Nazi persecution. Initially, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt showed some willingness to take in some of those on board, but Hull and Southern Democrats voiced vehement opposition, and some of them threatened to withhold their support of Roosevelt in the 1940 election. On 4 June 1939 Roosevelt denied entry to the ship, which was waiting in the Caribbean Sea between Florida and Cuba. The passengers began negotiations with the Cuban government, but those broke down at the last minute. Forced to return to Europe, over a quarter of its passengers subsequently died in the Holocaust.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 05:55:30PM 2 points [-]

The 1989 prize was awarded to the 14th Dalai Lama. This wasn't well-accepted by the Chinese government, which cited his separatist tendencies. Additionally, the Nobel Prize Committee cited their intention to put pressure on China.

I don't imagine China thinks much of last year's prize either. That guy is a current Chinese political prisoner!

Comment author: Yvain 28 September 2011 07:28:02PM 3 points [-]

Hypothetically, if Nobel had been a sociopath and instituted a "Nobel War Prize" or "Nobel Deadly Conflict Prize" with an equally poorly defined mission, how inadequately would you judge their work had they given the award to exactly the same recipients as were actually awarded the Peace Prize?

WHAT? It's an OUTRAGE that they passed over both Hitler and Stalin! An OUTRAGE! Who do these people think they are?

More seriously, I don't see this as a deal-breaker. If I asked a bunch of people for the people with the greatest positive effect on human history, and the people with the greatest negative effect on human history, the same names would probably appear on both lists several times (Mohammed, for example). Certainly he'd be higher up than Bob Q. Random.

continue this thread »

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 05:02:50PM * 5 points [-]

You forgot my favorite case!

The 1973 prize went to North Vietnamese leader Le Duc Tho and United States Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger "for the 1973 Paris Peace Accords intended to bring about a cease-fire in the Vietnam War and a withdrawal of the American forces". Tho later declined the prize. However, North Vietnam invaded South Vietnam in April 1975 and reunified (This is not sufficiently euphemistic. I suggest replacing "reunified" with "happy-fuzzified-togethernessed" -Ed.) the country. Kissinger's history included the secret 1969–1975 campaign of bombing against infiltrating North Vietnamese Army troops in Cambodia, the alleged U.S. involvement in Operation Condor—a mid-1970s campaign of kidnapping and murder coordinated among the intelligence and security services of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile (see details), Paraguay, and Uruguay—as well as the death of French nationals under the Chilean junta. He also supported the Turkish Intervention in Cyprus resulting in the de facto partition of the island.[citation needed] According to Irwin Abrams, this prize was the most controversial to date. Two Norwegian Nobel Committee members resigned in protest.[97][98] When the award was announced, hostilities were continuing. (Emphasis added)

Comment author: TheOtherDave 28 September 2011 07:39:08PM 4 points [-]

Digressing somewhat...

The leader of a very large country [...] can have a greater positive influence on the world just by being a fraction of a percent nicer than the average person, than the leader of a small country, or a private individual, can have by being an amazing saint

I suspect you mean "...a fraction of a percent nicer than the average candidate for that leadership position."

Though perhaps it should be "...a fraction of a percent nicer than whoever would have otherwise held the position."

Or perhaps not? Perhaps the right comparison is actually between the results of what they did do (take the position and act as nicely as they did) and what they could have done (act more nicely, or less nicely, or abdicate in favor of someone better qualified, or whatever).

I'm genuinely uncertain, here. It's difficult, when comparing actualities to counterfactuals, to establish clear criteria for what counterfactuals to use.

Comment author: Nornagest 28 September 2011 05:24:44PM 3 points [-]

Additionally, it seems unclear whether the Peace Prize is primarily meant to reward or to encourage efforts toward global... let's say "altruism", since "peace" seems too narrow. There have been controversial awards falling into both categories (Kissinger's was unambiguously the former), but controversy over the latter seems to make the news more consistently.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 06:17:33PM * 2 points [-]

Additionally, it seems unclear whether the Peace Prize is primarily meant to reward or to encourage efforts toward global... let's say "altruism", since "peace" seems too narrow.

Perhaps the peace prize is primarily meant to maximise the use of the word 'Nobel'. Ambiguous wording is perfect for achieving that goal. It allows the prize to maintain the credibility it borrows from the Nobel science awards while also promoting controversy. An ideal execution of posthumous PR strategy (assuming getting crucified while founding a religion is out of the question).

continue this thread »

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 05:52:35PM * 1 point [-]

The leader of a very large country, like the United States or the Soviet Union, can have a greater positive influence on the world just by being a fraction of a percent nicer than the average person, than the leader of a small country, or a private individual, can have by being an amazing saint (Obama).

On the other hand Robin Hanson will vote against Obama even in a simple election because he, in Hanson's judgement, started a war unjustifiably.

Some dictator or lunatic who mellows out and murders less than usual probably has a very large beneficial effect on the world, compared to his usual murder rate (Arafat and the Israelis).

The "slightly less of a warmonger than you used to be" prize? I don't think the mission is quite that poorly defined! That said, he shared that year's prize with some Israeli folks so it was more a bipartisan honor for a specific act than in honor of the person. That is perhaps justifiable.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 September 2011 04:51:12PM 4 points [-]

No, my advice for the most practical and ethical way of dealing with oppressors is to not protest at all, not let them know that you oppose them and systematically assassinate all their leaders until they leave.

I used to think that, but I no longer find it plausible. The premise seems to be that leaders are detachable pieces.

In fact, assassination has a risk of making leaders more frightened and forceful. Additionally, a good many people may be loyal to a leader, so that assassination registers as an outside threat rather than a favor.

A sequence of assassinations is hard. Are you expecting enough of your group to survive and continue? Other groups to take up the project?

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 06:08:52PM 0 points [-]

A sequence of assassinations is hard. Are you expecting enough of your group to survive and continue? Other groups to take up the project?

Not having a significant power base is rather a limiting factor when it comes to just about any political campaign. I suggest that it takes less surviving members to arrange assassinations than it requires to perform a rebellion via conventional tactics.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 September 2011 08:19:05AM 3 points [-]

Has the sequence of assassinations tactic ever worked?

continue this thread »

Comment author: prase 28 September 2011 04:31:11PM 2 points [-]

Please, don't write "Ghandi" instead of Gandhi.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 04:39:20PM 0 points [-]

Ick. I wonder why chrome didn't pick that up for me!

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 03:38:16PM 2 points [-]

You are certainly trying hard to make me look bad but regardless of whether you are successful in persuading your audience I reject your claim.

I am not out to get you. I am out to correct your view of historical fact. I apologize for acting such that the latter was mistaken for the former.

I have more than enough evidence to conclude that I would prefer a peace prize that is awarded to Stanislav Petrov and Ghandi than one awarded to Yasser Arafat and Al Gore.

I agree with you.

I further suggest that if you don't think Ghandi's example would be consistent with getting offended by things then you totally missed the point of what he did.

I do not think Gandhi would have organized a fast, walk, or strike over not receiving a prize.

Comment author: Desrtopa 28 September 2011 03:25:08PM 1 point [-]

No, my advice for the most practical and ethical way of dealing with oppressors is to not protest at all, not let them know that you oppose them and systematically assassinate all their leaders until they leave.

That sounds likely to fail disastrously.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 03:30:30PM 4 points [-]

It has worked once: the Ismailis managed to win freedom from Persia using this method. I do not know how often it has been tried.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 03:44:40PM -1 points [-]

I would bet against you heavily in most relevant counterfactual scenarios.

Comment author: Desrtopa 28 September 2011 04:03:04PM 2 points [-]

It requires quite a lot of things to go right. If your group is generally opposed, you need some authority that they'll respond to that will stop them from protesting, either keeping the message secret from the authorities you're trying to oppose, or without telling them the real reason in the first place. The assassinations have to be successful, without the assassins being caught, and present day assassinations frequently fail or are so difficult that they are not attempted in the first place. The authorities have to realize that pulling out would put an end to the deaths, but not decide to retaliate by further victimizing locals with an ultimatum that they'll continue until the assassinations stop.

continue this thread »

Comment author: Vaniver 28 September 2011 03:52:36PM * 2 points [-]

Modern examples of a similar strategy- terrorists- seem to not be terribly effective at enacting their political goals. That may be because targeting leaders is more effective than targeting civilians or symbols, but it's not clear to me that that is the case.

continue this thread »

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 04:48:21PM * 0 points [-]

silly walks to fetch salt as a way to broadcast how offensive things are.

Not sure if intentional.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 05:06:01PM -1 points [-]

I'm not sure whether it would have helped or not but I'm sure that if Gandhi's followers used silly walks while fetching salt they would have had a whole lot more fun!

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