lessdazed comments on Stanislav Petrov Day - Less Wrong

35 Post author: gwern 26 September 2011 02:49PM

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Comment author: Yvain 28 September 2011 03:54:45PM 13 points [-]

The Peace Prize has a very poorly defined mission.

Some third world activist who leads a social movement earns a lot of warm fuzzies, but probably doesn't affect the world very much (let's say Maathai).

Someone who pursues a naturally partisan and controversial goal peacefully probably produces a lot of conflict, but less conflict than they would have if they were violent about it. (Gandhi)

Some dictator or lunatic who mellows out and murders less than usual probably has a very large beneficial effect on the world, compared to his usual murder rate (Arafat and the Israelis).

The leader of a very large country, like the United States or the Soviet Union, can have a greater positive influence on the world just by being a fraction of a percent nicer than the average person, than the leader of a small country, or a private individual, can have by being an amazing saint (Obama).

And some random person in the right place at the right time may have a very large effect in terms of sheer scale, but be questionable in terms of genuine virtue (Petrov).

If about 60% of people, in Petrov's situation, would have done what he did, is it better to give the prize to him, or to some activist who has spent her whole life tirelessly struggling for freedom despite adversity?

I'm not a big fan of the Nobel committee's decisions, but given the pressures they face and the confusion of their task I don't think they've done a ridiculously inadequate job.

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 05:12:32PM 8 points [-]

I'm not a big fan of the Nobel committee's decisions, but given the pressures they face and the confusion of their task I don't think they've done a ridiculously inadequate job.

Hypothetically, if Nobel had been a sociopath and instituted a "Nobel War Prize" or "Nobel Deadly Conflict Prize" with an equally poorly defined mission, how inadequately would you judge their work had they given the award to exactly the same recipients as were actually awarded the Peace Prize?

The 2004 prize went to Wangari Maathai "for her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace". She was reported by the Kenyan newspaper Standard and Radio Free Europe to have stated that HIV/AIDS was originally developed by Western scientists in order to depopulate Africa.

The 1989 prize was awarded to the 14th Dalai Lama. This wasn't well-accepted by the Chinese government, which cited his separatist tendencies. Additionally, the Nobel Prize Committee cited their intention to put pressure on China.

The 1945 prize was awarded to Cordell Hull as "Former Secretary of State; Prominent participant in the originating of the UN". Hull was Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Secretary of State during the SS St. Louis Crisis. The St. Louis sailed from Hamburg in the summer of 1939 carrying over 950 Jewish refugees, seeking asylum from Nazi persecution. Initially, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt showed some willingness to take in some of those on board, but Hull and Southern Democrats voiced vehement opposition, and some of them threatened to withhold their support of Roosevelt in the 1940 election. On 4 June 1939 Roosevelt denied entry to the ship, which was waiting in the Caribbean Sea between Florida and Cuba. The passengers began negotiations with the Cuban government, but those broke down at the last minute. Forced to return to Europe, over a quarter of its passengers subsequently died in the Holocaust.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 September 2011 05:55:30PM 2 points [-]

The 1989 prize was awarded to the 14th Dalai Lama. This wasn't well-accepted by the Chinese government, which cited his separatist tendencies. Additionally, the Nobel Prize Committee cited their intention to put pressure on China.

I don't imagine China thinks much of last year's prize either. That guy is a current Chinese political prisoner!

Comment author: Yvain 28 September 2011 07:28:02PM 3 points [-]

Hypothetically, if Nobel had been a sociopath and instituted a "Nobel War Prize" or "Nobel Deadly Conflict Prize" with an equally poorly defined mission, how inadequately would you judge their work had they given the award to exactly the same recipients as were actually awarded the Peace Prize?

WHAT? It's an OUTRAGE that they passed over both Hitler and Stalin! An OUTRAGE! Who do these people think they are?

More seriously, I don't see this as a deal-breaker. If I asked a bunch of people for the people with the greatest positive effect on human history, and the people with the greatest negative effect on human history, the same names would probably appear on both lists several times (Mohammed, for example). Certainly he'd be higher up than Bob Q. Random.

Comment author: lessdazed 28 September 2011 07:45:54PM 6 points [-]

If a list of people is indistinguishable from a shoddily done list of worst person of the year and a shoddily done list of best person of the year, it's mostly of psychological interest for telling us about the award givers, rather than anything about the recipients.

Perhaps we could calculate what a list of people would look like relative to the Nobel Peace Prize recipient list if the only criteria was influence. We could then compare the lists.

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