SilasBarta comments on Stanislav Petrov Day - Less Wrong
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It's my understanding that the Peace Prize is the one case where that doesn't hold, because it's often given to grant support to a nascent, positive movement:
(And there was certainly no wait for longevity in the 2009 award to the recently-elected Obama, even if he did deserve it.)
This is true; the explanation you posted in another part of this thread was a superior explanation of why he wasn't going to get it until 1948. People dying before they receive any Nobel prize is common, however, though you are right that it is less so for the Peace prize.
People killing before they receive Nobels other than the Nobel Peace prize is less common, however, so it balances out.