Vaniver comments on Stanislav Petrov Day - Less Wrong

35 Post author: gwern 26 September 2011 02:49PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 01 October 2011 12:43:01AM 3 points [-]

How many changed things as much as, say, Sirhan Sirhan or Lee Harvey Oswald?

Er, the US still supports Israel, and the US still opposes communism. Again, there's a difference between changing things and fulfilling your aspirations.

Comment author: gwern 01 October 2011 02:17:14AM 0 points [-]

The Kennedy political dynasty disappeared, though, which is something to gladden the hearts of Republicans.

Comment author: Vaniver 01 October 2011 02:55:08AM 3 points [-]

I don't see evidence that Sirhan Sirhan was Republican, and Oswald was definitely a communist. It's not clear to me how that supports your point.

(As well, you may have heard of this guy, goes by the name of Ted.)

Comment author: gwern 01 October 2011 03:01:36AM 1 point [-]

Ted never came anywhere near the presidency and then he sealed the deal with his little car accident; JFK was hoping for two terms, of course, to be followed by RFK, since they were the gifted ones. Killing Ted would be useful from the Republican POV, of course, since Ted did a lot of good work in the Senate, but Robert and John were the threats.

I don't see evidence that Sirhan Sirhan was Republican, and Oswald was definitely a communist. It's not clear to me how that supports your point.

The point is that each had a vastly greater impact on the political process than they ever could have had by non-assassination routes.

That the impact was not in the direction of their goals is immaterial, because all that means is one needs slightly better planning and then one will have both vast impact on politics and do so in the direction of one's goals. The need for tweaks does not refute the basic point about marginal advantage. (I just said this in my other comment.)

Comment author: Vaniver 01 October 2011 03:19:34AM 7 points [-]

The point is that each had a vastly greater impact on the political process than they ever could have had by non-assassination routes.

I thought we were talking about success, not impact.

Comment author: TobyBartels 03 October 2011 03:41:51AM 0 points [-]

OK, so what we're learning here is that, while Sirhan and Oswald didn't achieve their goals (which after all were far fetched and which nobody else has achieved since), the Republican Party would have achieved its goals (which were rather modest and much closer at hand) quite well by assassination. (And of course, that's the basis from which many conspiracy theorists start: qui bono and all that. Even if you don't buy their specific theories, which are usually nonsense, you can agree with them that such conspiracies would have been effective if they were real.)

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 28 September 2012 05:24:43AM *  4 points [-]

As a Republican I have to disagree with you.

We lost one of the most conservative Democrats in recent memory and got LBJ instead.

Also JFK the martyr probably did a lot more for the liberal cause than JFK the president ever did or would do.

Comment author: Alicorn 28 September 2012 05:55:44AM *  8 points [-]

As a Republic

I'm imagining your various organs in line for the polls. Most of 'em vote for your brain.

ETA: aw, you changed it.

Comment author: TimS 28 September 2012 02:19:45PM 3 points [-]

Visiting the JFK Museum in Dallas just reinforces the huge dissonance between Kennedy-the-man and Kennedy-the-myth. If the presentations are to be believed, Kennedy would have pulled the US out of Vietnam, ended racial strife, and generally achieved liberal utopia.

Those assertions are incredibly laughable given what we know about (a) Kennedy's politics and (b) what actually happened in the decades after his death.

Comment author: shminux 28 September 2012 06:15:11AM 2 points [-]

I'm surprised that a forum regular would identify with either of the two major US political parties. Keep your identity small and all that.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 28 September 2012 07:00:37AM 0 points [-]

Note: it's "keep your identity small" not "have no identity".

Comment author: [deleted] 28 September 2012 08:00:22AM 2 points [-]

Still disappointed that people's identity is so big that that of Greens or Blues fits in it. (Especially when “Greens” are teal and “Blues” are cyan.)